Geopolitics Risk Analysis

Leading Indicators (6-18 month predictive): Yield curve inversion, credit spreads (HYG/TLT), copper/gold ratio, consumer rotation (XLY/XLP). These signals have preceded major recessions since 1970s.

Historical Validation: All thresholds derived from documented episodes including 2000 dot-com crash, 2008 GFC, 2020 COVID recession, and 2022 inflation surge.

Data Sources: Yahoo Finance (equity/commodity prices), FRED Economic Data (macro indicators), updated daily. Framework based on peer-reviewed research and central bank methodologies.